Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Can the S&P 500 go Higher from Here?


It doesn’t seem logical that the stock market will keep going up (with all the bad news out there), but the US economy is still growing.  There are questions about how much longer that may last, though.  Even so, here’s an article that might give some hope for continued advance in the S&P 500.

From CNBC:
Think US Stocks Are Bad? Try Everywhere Else First
“U.S. stocks are outperforming the rest of the world by the biggest margin in eight years as Europe’s financial crisis and China’s slowing growth make America's troubles seem tame…“With this trend still in place, we believe investors should continue to overweight U.S. stocks, and more specifically, U.S. stocks which generate the majority of their sales in the U.S.,” wrote an analyst from Bespoke Investment Group, the research firm which brought this milestone to light in a note to clients.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48302869?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

I think that gives some hope for the S&P 500 to move up from here, but I am not optimistic in the longer term.

MARKET                                                                                           
Wednesday the S&P 500 finished unchanged at 1338. The VIX fell 5-1/2% to 19.34.

NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains HOLD at the close on Wednesday. 

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352.  I now have a 50% stock allocation overall.  I am underweight my usual aggressive allocation for stock because there’s a lot of risk now.