NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --
Retail sales declined for the third month in a row, as consumers grow
increasingly concerned over the weakening economic situation in the United
States and Europe…Overall retail sales in June fell 0.5% in the month,
according to a Commerce Department report on Monday. The decline came as many
were expecting growth, with economists surveyed by Briefing.com expecting
growth of 0.2%.
That’s pretty bad news in
my opinion, but I am notoriously bad at predicting the stock market reaction to
what I perceive as bad economic numbers.
Really, that’s what we
have now – a growing list of bad economic data (just check out some previous NTSM
blogs), but the NTSM indicators, as well as other indicators I track, are very positive. As a result, I am positive on the stock market in the short term. (The NTSM system only tracks the stock market; there is no "economic" indicator.)
MARKET
Monday
the S&P 500 finished down 1/4% to 1354.
The VIX rose 2% to 17.11.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is BUY Monday
at the close.
NTSM has been BUY 5 of the
last 7-days and it is BUY today. If the
S&P drops to the lower trend line (now at 1340) I’ll probably go 2x-long using
a Rydex leveraged fund (or a 2xETF such as QLD) for a trade up to the higher
trend line. If not, I won’t bother.
I am not trading much
these days because my short–term trading last year only made 5%. I shouldn’t be too upset since some of those
trades were to hedge long positions; but still, the record keeping is a pain in
the butt. I can’t imagine doing taxes
for a day-trader. I guess the way to
avoid that is to confine trading to a IRA account.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal Friday, 6 July, I moved
back into the market on 9 July and I now have a 50% stock allocation. I am underweight my usual allocation for stock
because there’s a lot of risk now.
