CONSUMER SENTIMENT – from
MARKETWATCH
“The consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary July reading of 72 from
73.2 in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a July reading of
73…“Things could be a lot worse,” said Paul Ashworth, chief
U.S, Economist at Capital Economics, who noted that the sentiment index dropped
to the mid-50s almost a year ago. “Overall, consumers remain cautious, but at
least they aren’t panicking,” Ashworth said.” Full story at…http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-lowest-since-december-2012-07-13-101032218
Speaking
of sentiment, the NTSM Sentiment indicator was 58%-bulls as of yesterday’s
close. That’s elevated, but still a
neutral reading.
MARKET
Friday
the S&P 500 finished up 1.65% to 1357.
The VIX fell 9% to 16.74.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is BUY,
Friday at the close. Price, Volume and VIX indicators are all positive (buy).
As I said yesterday, I
expect the S&P 500 will move up from here, perhaps as much as 10%. That’s really just a guess. There is nothing in the NTSM system that
predicts the future.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal
Friday, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July and I now have a 50%
stock allocation. I am underweight my
usual allocation for stock because there’s a lot of risk now.
