Navigate the Stock Market: June 2025

Thursday, June 19, 2025

Juneteenth

The NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) and other U.S. stock markets, including Nasdaq and bond markets, will be closed on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth. They will resume normal trading hours on Friday, June 20. Juneteenth is a federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States.

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Fed Meeting ... Housing ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

TRUMP’S BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ISN’T SO BEAUTIFUL (WSJ)
“Republicans’ tax-and-spending megabill would increase budget deficits by $2.8 trillion through 2034 after factoring in the projected economic growth the bill would create, leading to 15% more red ink than previously estimated, according to the Congressional Budget Office.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/gop-megabill-would-increase-deficits-even-more-after-including-economic-growth-cbo-says-e9fdc315?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAghwHLt1BdXJkrkrEAo_s86aumH1VJOhfrchL0Et9R1tGUtx2yMUkuJW_L9yM8%3D&gaa_ts=68532d92&gaa_sig=vKcCqWNHOKVzVVhrfD9pHYoyYYUwaWf_6UHFE6rbONoSXFZc9axN0T0gsVSyfJPYfMH5LbWn7_V8FzJZeR7Nzg%3D%3D
Maybe that’s why Elon Musk called it an “abomination.”

FED MEETING (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve kept a steady hand on interest rates, maintaining them at their target range of 4.25% to 4.5%...Federal Reserve Chair Powell said on Wednesday that tariffs are an unavoidable cost increase to businesses and consumers.
‘Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs,’ Powell said. ‘It will be someone in that chain that I mentioned, between the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, ultimately somebody putting it into a good of some kind or just the consumer buying it.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/fed-meeting-live-updates-feds-interest-rate-projections-loom.html

HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding increased in May, but a sharp drop in permits for future construction pointed to subdued housing market conditions amid headwinds from tariffs and excess inventory of unsold homes. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.4%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124819037.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in June and softening economic activity... Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 14.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-still-elevated-2025-06-18/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5981.
-VIX declined about 7% to 20.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.391% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped into Neutral territory at +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. One can see from the above chart, a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line) often indicates a declining market.

Wednesday, there was high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

A few worrisome Bear signs:
-Up-volume is trending down.
-S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth.
-MACD OF S&P 500 price.
-Money Trend..
-New-high/New Low data
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Smart Money..
-Cyclical Industrials are Underperforming the S&P 500

For now, I’ll worry if the S&P 500 significantly violates its lower trend-line.

I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll see. The S&P 500 is about 2.7% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February and it has been in this zone for a while.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral – got to follow those indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

DAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped, and remained barely Bullish at +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread has reversed to the downside – a bearish sign. One can see from the above chart, a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line) often indicates a declining market.

Retail Sales and Industrial Production down? Not a good sign. It is not surprising to see indicators falling with the economy slowing and a middle east conflict underway. Some of the reports on declining retail sales noted that part of the reason was that sales had been pulled forward by buyers trying to beat the tariffs. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, is bearish as he looks into the fall for that reason. Sounds reasonable to me. It will be interesting to see what the FED says about the economy tomorrow, Wednesday, when their meeting concludes. For now, I’ll worry if the lower trend-line is violated.

I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll see. The S&P 500 is about 2.6% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February and it has been in this zone for a while.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, June 16, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Tax-and-spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans – it makes no difference.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

RIAPro: 15-Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game
1.     Cut losers short and let winner’s run. (Be a scale-up buyer.)
2.     Set goals and be actionable. (Without specific goals, trades become arbitrary.)
3.     Emotionally driven decisions void the investment process.  (Buy high/sell low)
4.     Follow the trend. (80% of portfolio performance is determined by the long-term, monthly, trend. While a “rising tide lifts all boats,” the opposite is also true.)
5.     Never let a “trading opportunity” turn into a long-term investment. (Refer to rule #1. All initial purchases are “trades,” until your investment thesis is proved correct.)
6.     An investment discipline does not work if it is not followed.
7.     “Losing money” is part of the investment process. (If you are not prepared to take losses when they occur, you should not be investing.)
8.     The odds of success improve greatly when the fundamental analysis is confirmed by the technical price action. (This applies to both bull and bear markets)
9.     Never, under any circumstances, add to a losing position. (“Only losers add to losers.” – Paul Tudor Jones)
10. Markets are either “bullish” or “bearish.” During a “bull market” be only long or neutral. During a “bear market”be only neutral or short. (Bull and Bear markets are determined by their long-term trend.)
11. When markets are trading at, or near, extremes do the opposite of the “herd.”
12. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. (Traditional rebalancing takes money from winners and adds it to losers. Rebalance by reducing losers and adding to winners.)
13. “Buy” and “Sell” signals are only useful if they are implemented. (Managing without a “buy/sell” discipline is designed to fail.)
14. Strive to be a .700 “at bat” player. (No strategy works 100% of the time. Be consistent, control errors, and capitalize on opportunity to win.)
15. Manage risk and volatility. (Control the variables that lead to mistakes to generate returns as a byproduct.)
Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice. From...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/riapro-15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/

UNION BEHIND LA AGITATION (WSJ)
“The week’s riots in Los Angeles kicked off with the June 6 arrest of David Huerta, president of the Service Employees International Union’s California chapter. You might expect a union boss to favor immigration enforcement in the name of protecting his members’ jobs. But SEIU California has built its brand—and its business—by obliterating the line between legal and illegal immigration. Operating as an open-borders lobby shop that also organizes workers, it has for four decades amassed political and cultural power in the Golden State for the purpose of undermining federal authority over immigration.” – Will Swaim, president of the California Policy Center. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-public-sector-union-behind-los-angeles-immigration-agitation-0ccbc8a2?mod=opinion_lead_pos9

MASS DEPORTATION – EXCEPT AT HOTELS (WSJ)
Trump says businesses report losing ‘very good, long time workers.’ How about changing policy?
“...on Thursday morning he [Trump] tapped out this sentence on Truth Social: “Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Then Mr. Trump turned the focus back where the White House wants it, which is gang members and threats to public safety. “We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA,” he said. “Changes are coming!” ... But his federal agents are out raiding job sites full of non-criminal, hard-working people who are contributing to the American economy. The real policy isn’t what Mr. Trump says, but what his agents do on the ground.” - The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-mass-deportation-immigrants-business-vincent-scardina-2c81f53a?mod=opinion_lead_pos4

“Millions of migrants work for low wages in service and agricultural industries. Their removal would increase production costs and leave many jobs to go unfilled. Fields would lie fallow, output would fall and so forth. All this reminds me of “Trump Tangles With the Journal’s Editors” by James Taranto (Weekend Interview, Oct. 19, 2024). Asked about his plans for the “largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” Mr. Trump said: “We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it, and I’d like to see if we can do it...I mean, there’s some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too. OK?” He was right. Where’s the heart, Mr. Trump?” - Mike Koerner, WSJ Letters.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6033.
-VIX fell about 8% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.450% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators was unchanged, and remained Bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone.

I wrote last week that I don’t expect much of a decline from the Israel-Iran conflict, but I must admit I was surprised by Monday’s jump higher. I saw a report on CNBC that investors had decided that the conflict was no big deal. Now (7:30pm Monday) futures are down about 0.5%and CNBC is reporting futures are responding to the conflict. That just reinforces that figuring out why markets are going up or down is often a guess rather than reality.

I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll have to wait to see ow the Israel-Iran conflict goes. The S&P 500 is about 1.8% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Israel – Iran ... Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

“Smart money usually is early to the rally and then slowly reduces exposure as the dumb money throws in the bearish towel and starts to embrace the market strength...Dumb money is chasing the market higher while smart money is either sitting tight or feeding the ducks as they quack. Of course, the market can soar higher from here, but the risk is much more than it was in April when the easiest money was made. The NASDAQ 100 is now just a good day away from all-time highs.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.

ISRAEL STRIKES; IRAN RETALIATES (AP News)
“Iranian missiles struck Israel in retaliation for deadly Israeli attacks on nuclear sites and military leaders.
The wail of air raid sirens and the rumble of explosions could be heard throughout Israel on Friday, and Associated Press journalists documented explosions as Iranian rockets hit Tel Aviv, the commercial hub of Israel. Paramedics said five people were wounded.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (CNBC)
“Consumers in the early part of June took a considerably less pessimistic view about the economy and potential surges in inflation as progress appeared possible in the global trade war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday... For the headline index of consumer sentiment, the gauge was at 60.5, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 54 and a 15.9% increase from a month ago. The current conditions index jumped 8.1%, while the future expectations measure soared 21.9%.” Story At...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/consumer-sentiment-reading-rebounds-to-much-higher-level-than-expected-as-people-get-over-tariff-shock.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.1% to 5977.
-VIX rose about 16% to 20.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.407% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained Bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone.

Indicators aren’t the story today. Today is all about Israel’s attack, Iran’s response and the ramifications on oil prices, the dollar etc. Still, the 10-dMA of the spread is going up on Friday – a bullish sign.

Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990 starting the “first” Iraq war (first for the United States). Markets were down 18% from mid-July thru mid-October. Clearly the invasion rattled markets along with a recession known as the “Gulf War Recession.” In mid-January the US announced Operation Desert Storm, the US moved on Iraq to liberate Kuwait and the markets rose 18% in only 4-weeks.

I point this out to note that conflicts are more often buying opportunities rather than times to sell. I’m still expecting markets to make new highs, but that may have to wait until there is more clarity regarding the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.

If markets get more concerned and today’s weakness morphs into a real correction, we may get a decent buying opportunity - if I can identify a bottom. I don’t expect much of a decline from the conflict, but I have been wrong before.

The S&P 500 is about 2.7% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish and I am not making any changes to the portfolio.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Abolish FEMA? ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“I heard Republican Congressman, Chip Roy of Texas, claim Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” pays for itself through tax cuts and economic growth. What crap. That’s like saying if I buy a new car with a credit card, it will pay for itself because I can now drive to work. That’s true if I pay off the credit card, but in the case of the Federal budget, the debt is never paid. Congressman, how will the debt be paid? We need to fire all these clowns. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Tax-and-Spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend-Republicans; the country is screwed.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

“President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he plans to phase out the Federal Emergency Management Agency after this year’s hurricane season, offering the clearest timeline yet for his administration’s long-term plans to dismantle the disaster relief agency and shift responsibility for response and recovery onto states.” Story at...
Trump says he plans to phase out FEMA after 2025 hurricane season
-“Well, this is interesting. Among many jobs I held in Federal Govt, I was the Emergency Manager for a DOD organization involved in emergency response. Like many of Trump’s Executive Orders, there is a significant question whether he has the power to abolish FEMA. Even though it was established by Executive order of Jimmy Carter, there is a statute, the Stafford Act, that covers emergencies and FEMA. Additionally, FEMA was reformed in 2006 in the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act.

The Stafford Act detailed a framework for disaster response. One of the primary tenants of the act was that a federal disaster was to be declared only if the disaster was too great for a State to handle. Over the years, that concept faded due to Politics, and Federal Disasters were declared for everything from tornados to snowstorms. But since the original concept was that States were to handle disasters unless if they were beyond their capability, Trump’s order makes no sense. Who coordinates the recovery effort in a case where the disaster really is too large for a state to handle – for example, a major earthquake affecting large parts of California, Alaska or Missouri? Currently, FEMA manages federal support by tasking federal agencies through an existing structure that assigns missions to federal agencies. Trump’s plan does not provide the structure to handle a disaster – it abolishes it.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.

PPI (CNN)
“The latest Producer Price Index, a closely watched measurement of wholesale inflation, showed that prices paid to producers rose 0.1% in May, lifting the annual rate to 2.6%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/12/economy/us-producer-price-index-ppi-inflation-may

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“New applications for jobless benefits numbered 248,000 for the week ending June 7, the Labor Department said Thursday. Analysts had forecast 244,000 new applications. A week ago, there were 248,000 jobless claim applications, which was the most since early October and a sign that layoffs could be trending higher.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/number-americans-filing-jobless-claims-week-remains-highest-122769235

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6045.
-VIX rose about 5% to 18.05. (The Options Boys seem concerned since they bucked the trend.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.365% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained Bullish at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread is still going up – a bullish sign.

Same as yesterday: We still see that 7 out of the last 10-days have been up-days. That’s not quite a short-term sell signal, but it is close enough so that sometimes there is weakness in the markets at this level of bullishness. A little weakness would not be a surprise, but we may make a new high first.

As I have been writing for a while, the day of reckoning is coming. My AI search said that a day of reckoning “is not inherently ‘bad’ but rather signifies a period where actions and their outcomes are made clear.” The day of reckoning for the stock market is the prior all-time high. When the S&P 500 get’s to its prior all-time high we’ll get some important information about the rally. If breadth is good, the rally is likely to continue.

The S&P 500 is about 1.6% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February so we may not have long to wait.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

CPI ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved and remained very Bullish at +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread reversed again and is now going up – a bullish sign. It’s just a reminder that I don’t trade on information just from one source, even if it is based on 50-indicators. Yesterday it was headed down.

7 out of the last 10-days have been up-days. That’s not quite a short-term sell signal, but it is close enough so that sometimes there is weakness in the markets at this level of bullishness. That’s what we’re seeing today; some angst over the bullish move over the last 2 weeks. This looks normal and I doubt the weakness will last too long.

The S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities, but the outperformance is fading, so this indicator is now one of the few bearish ones. This is usually a good indicator, but its usefulness is less now that some investors are buying utilities as a play on data-centers and their need for power.

As I have been writing for a while, the day of reckoning is coming. My AI search said that a day of reckoning “is not inherently ‘bad’ but rather signifies a period where actions and their outcomes are made clear.” The day of reckoning for the stock market is the prior all-time high. When the S&P 500 get’s to its prior all-time high we’ll get some important information about the rally. If breadth is good, the rally is likely to continue.

The S&P 500 is still about 2% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February so we may not have long to wait.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)