Jobless Claims ... GDP ... Durable Goods ... KC FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin
 
"I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” – Warren Buffett during a CNBC interview with Becky Quick in 2011.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Jobless claims for the week ended June 21 dropped 10,000 to 236,000, a historically-low level. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, dipped 750 to 245,000.
Applications for unemployment aid are a proxy for layoffs, and so the decline is evidence that businesses are mostly holding onto their employees.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-sought-unemployment-benefits-week-layoffs-remain-123226706
 
GDP (CNN)
“Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate.” Story at... 
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/economy/us-gdp-q1-final
 
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Yahoo Finanec)
“Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, jumped 16.4% last month after a revised 6.6% decline in April...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-soar-131928551.html
 
KC FED MANUFACTURING (Seeking Alpha)
“The Kansas City Manufacturing Composite Index edged up to -2 from -3 in May, but still showed a decline in manufacturing activity, the district Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.” Story at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4462864-kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-improves-slightly-but-still-in-contraction-territory
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6141.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.251% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators jumped higher to +13 from +2 yesterday (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread was flat – a neutral sign, but really it bullish since it suggests a turning point.
 
Now that’s more like it. What a difference a day makes. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE jumped higher by a significant number and are now well above 50%; new-highs are looking much healthier as the S&P 500 nears its prior high; and the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
 
I’ll consider increasing stock holdings tomorrow if numbers continue to look good.  I’ll post my moves, if any, late in the day.
 
The S&P 500 is about 0.1% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals reversed back to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.