Tax-and-spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans
– it makes no difference.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX).
RIAPro: 15-Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game
1. Cut losers short and let winner’s run. (Be a scale-up buyer.)
2. Set goals and be actionable. (Without specific goals, trades become arbitrary.)
3. Emotionally driven decisions void the investment process. (Buy high/sell low)
4. Follow the trend. (80% of portfolio performance is determined by the long-term, monthly, trend. While a “rising tide lifts all boats,” the opposite is also true.)
5. Never let a “trading opportunity” turn into a long-term investment. (Refer to rule #1. All initial purchases are “trades,” until your investment thesis is proved correct.)
6. An investment discipline does not work if it is not followed.
7. “Losing money” is part of the investment process. (If you are not prepared to take losses when they occur, you should not be investing.)
8. The odds of success improve greatly when the fundamental analysis is confirmed by the technical price action. (This applies to both bull and bear markets)
9. Never, under any circumstances, add to a losing position. (“Only losers add to losers.” – Paul Tudor Jones)
10. Markets are either “bullish” or “bearish.” During a “bull market” be only long or neutral. During a “bear market”be only neutral or short. (Bull and Bear markets are determined by their long-term trend.)
11. When markets are trading at, or near, extremes do the opposite of the “herd.”
12. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. (Traditional rebalancing takes money from winners and adds it to losers. Rebalance by reducing losers and adding to winners.)
13. “Buy” and “Sell” signals are only useful if they are implemented. (Managing without a “buy/sell” discipline is designed to fail.)
14. Strive to be a .700 “at bat” player. (No strategy works 100% of the time. Be consistent, control errors, and capitalize on opportunity to win.)
15. Manage risk and volatility. (Control the variables that lead to mistakes to generate returns as a byproduct.)
Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice. From...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/riapro-15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/
UNION BEHIND LA AGITATION (WSJ)
“The week’s riots in Los Angeles kicked off with the June 6 arrest of David Huerta, president of the Service Employees International Union’s California chapter. You might expect a union boss to favor immigration enforcement in the name of protecting his members’ jobs. But SEIU California has built its brand—and its business—by obliterating the line between legal and illegal immigration. Operating as an open-borders lobby shop that also organizes workers, it has for four decades amassed political and cultural power in the Golden State for the purpose of undermining federal authority over immigration.” – Will Swaim, president of the California Policy Center. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-public-sector-union-behind-los-angeles-immigration-agitation-0ccbc8a2?mod=opinion_lead_pos9
MASS DEPORTATION – EXCEPT AT HOTELS (WSJ)
Trump says businesses report losing ‘very good, long time workers.’ How about changing policy?
“...on Thursday morning he [Trump] tapped out this sentence on Truth Social: “Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Then Mr. Trump turned the focus back where the White House wants it, which is gang members and threats to public safety. “We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA,” he said. “Changes are coming!” ... But his federal agents are out raiding job sites full of non-criminal, hard-working people who are contributing to the American economy. The real policy isn’t what Mr. Trump says, but what his agents do on the ground.” - The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-mass-deportation-immigrants-business-vincent-scardina-2c81f53a?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
“Millions of migrants work for low wages in service and
agricultural industries. Their removal would increase production costs and
leave many jobs to go unfilled. Fields would lie fallow, output would fall and
so forth. All this reminds me of “Trump Tangles With the Journal’s Editors” by James
Taranto (Weekend Interview, Oct. 19, 2024). Asked about his plans for the
“largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” Mr. Trump said:
“We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something
about it, and I’d like to see if we can do it...I mean, there’s some human
questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart,
too. OK?” He was right. Where’s the heart, Mr. Trump?” - Mike Koerner, WSJ
Letters.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6033.
-VIX fell about 8% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.450% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
1. Cut losers short and let winner’s run. (Be a scale-up buyer.)
2. Set goals and be actionable. (Without specific goals, trades become arbitrary.)
3. Emotionally driven decisions void the investment process. (Buy high/sell low)
4. Follow the trend. (80% of portfolio performance is determined by the long-term, monthly, trend. While a “rising tide lifts all boats,” the opposite is also true.)
5. Never let a “trading opportunity” turn into a long-term investment. (Refer to rule #1. All initial purchases are “trades,” until your investment thesis is proved correct.)
6. An investment discipline does not work if it is not followed.
7. “Losing money” is part of the investment process. (If you are not prepared to take losses when they occur, you should not be investing.)
8. The odds of success improve greatly when the fundamental analysis is confirmed by the technical price action. (This applies to both bull and bear markets)
9. Never, under any circumstances, add to a losing position. (“Only losers add to losers.” – Paul Tudor Jones)
10. Markets are either “bullish” or “bearish.” During a “bull market” be only long or neutral. During a “bear market”be only neutral or short. (Bull and Bear markets are determined by their long-term trend.)
11. When markets are trading at, or near, extremes do the opposite of the “herd.”
12. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. (Traditional rebalancing takes money from winners and adds it to losers. Rebalance by reducing losers and adding to winners.)
13. “Buy” and “Sell” signals are only useful if they are implemented. (Managing without a “buy/sell” discipline is designed to fail.)
14. Strive to be a .700 “at bat” player. (No strategy works 100% of the time. Be consistent, control errors, and capitalize on opportunity to win.)
15. Manage risk and volatility. (Control the variables that lead to mistakes to generate returns as a byproduct.)
Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice. From...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/riapro-15-investing-rules-to-win-the-long-game/
“The week’s riots in Los Angeles kicked off with the June 6 arrest of David Huerta, president of the Service Employees International Union’s California chapter. You might expect a union boss to favor immigration enforcement in the name of protecting his members’ jobs. But SEIU California has built its brand—and its business—by obliterating the line between legal and illegal immigration. Operating as an open-borders lobby shop that also organizes workers, it has for four decades amassed political and cultural power in the Golden State for the purpose of undermining federal authority over immigration.” – Will Swaim, president of the California Policy Center. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-public-sector-union-behind-los-angeles-immigration-agitation-0ccbc8a2?mod=opinion_lead_pos9
Trump says businesses report losing ‘very good, long time workers.’ How about changing policy?
“...on Thursday morning he [Trump] tapped out this sentence on Truth Social: “Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Then Mr. Trump turned the focus back where the White House wants it, which is gang members and threats to public safety. “We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA,” he said. “Changes are coming!” ... But his federal agents are out raiding job sites full of non-criminal, hard-working people who are contributing to the American economy. The real policy isn’t what Mr. Trump says, but what his agents do on the ground.” - The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-mass-deportation-immigrants-business-vincent-scardina-2c81f53a?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6033.
-VIX fell about 8% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.450% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators was unchanged, and remained Bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone.
I am cautiously Bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
