"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX).
“Smart money usually is early to the rally and then
slowly reduces exposure as the dumb money throws in the bearish towel and
starts to embrace the market strength...Dumb money is chasing the market higher
while smart money is either sitting tight or feeding the ducks as they quack.
Of course, the market can soar higher from here, but the risk is much more than
it was in April when the easiest money was made. The NASDAQ 100 is now just a
good day away from all-time highs.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.
ISRAEL STRIKES; IRAN RETALIATES (AP News)
“Iranian missiles struck Israel in retaliation for deadly Israeli attacks on nuclear sites and military leaders.
The wail of air raid sirens and the rumble of explosions could be heard throughout Israel on Friday, and Associated Press journalists documented explosions as Iranian rockets hit Tel Aviv, the commercial hub of Israel. Paramedics said five people were wounded.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (CNBC)
“Consumers in the early part of June took a considerably less pessimistic view about the economy and potential surges in inflation as progress appeared possible in the global trade war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday... For the headline index of consumer sentiment, the gauge was at 60.5, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 54 and a 15.9% increase from a month ago. The current conditions index jumped 8.1%, while the future expectations measure soared 21.9%.” Story At...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/consumer-sentiment-reading-rebounds-to-much-higher-level-than-expected-as-people-get-over-tariff-shock.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.1% to 5977.
-VIX rose about 16% to 20.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.407% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained Bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone.
Indicators aren’t the story today. Today is all about Israel’s
attack, Iran’s response and the ramifications on oil prices, the dollar etc. Still,
the 10-dMA of the spread is going up on Friday – a bullish sign.
Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990 starting the
“first” Iraq war (first for the United States). Markets were down 18% from
mid-July thru mid-October. Clearly the invasion rattled markets along with a recession
known as the “Gulf War Recession.” In mid-January the US announced Operation
Desert Storm, the US moved on Iraq to liberate Kuwait and the markets rose 18%
in only 4-weeks.
I point this out to note that conflicts are more often
buying opportunities rather than times to sell. I’m still expecting markets to
make new highs, but that may have to wait until there is more clarity regarding
the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
If markets get more concerned and today’s weakness morphs
into a real correction, we may get a decent buying opportunity - if I can
identify a bottom. I don’t expect much of a decline from the conflict, but I
have been wrong before.
The S&P 500 is about 2.7% below its all-time high of
6144 on 19 February.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish and I am not making any changes to the portfolio.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is
my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher;
30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Iranian missiles struck Israel in retaliation for deadly Israeli attacks on nuclear sites and military leaders.
The wail of air raid sirens and the rumble of explosions could be heard throughout Israel on Friday, and Associated Press journalists documented explosions as Iranian rockets hit Tel Aviv, the commercial hub of Israel. Paramedics said five people were wounded.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-attack
“Consumers in the early part of June took a considerably less pessimistic view about the economy and potential surges in inflation as progress appeared possible in the global trade war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday... For the headline index of consumer sentiment, the gauge was at 60.5, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 54 and a 15.9% increase from a month ago. The current conditions index jumped 8.1%, while the future expectations measure soared 21.9%.” Story At...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/consumer-sentiment-reading-rebounds-to-much-higher-level-than-expected-as-people-get-over-tariff-shock.html
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.1% to 5977.
-VIX rose about 16% to 20.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.407% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained Bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone.
I am cautiously Bullish and I am not making any changes to the portfolio.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
