Monday, June 23, 2025

Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
SUPERMAN IS FOR THE HOSTAGES IN GAZA (WSJ)
“When I first released “Superman (It’s Not Easy)” in April 2001, I couldn’t have imagined it would become an anthem for first responders, men and women in uniform, and the broken everyday people working to heal our country. My song struck a chord because it wasn’t about capes or flying. It was about the vulnerabilities we all share and the burdens we all carry...
...I saw that firsthand when I performed “Superman” at the Concert for New York City on Oct. 20, 2001. I took pride in the American spirit, our resilience after such an atrocity...
...After Hamas massacred and kidnapped innocent Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, I dedicated “Superman” to hostage Alon Ohel, now 24, and all the innocent souls held captive in Gaza...
...I’ve written political music before...I chose a side, and again expected the criticism I received. Yet there is no way to pick a side over Oct. 7. The horrors of that day stand alone. My critics believe that expressing empathy for one group means you must hate another...
...When did we lose the ability to say “I see suffering, and I choose to respond with compassion”? How can anyone be reluctant to say a simple phrase like “Free the Hostages”?...
...Music is where we should be able to meet honestly without enmity. As I sing in “Superman,” I’m not naive. I know a song can’t stop a war, but it can start a conversation. It can open a heart. It can remind us that behind every headline is a human being who bleeds and loves and cries just like we do.” – John Ondrasik, Five for Fighting. Excerpted from WSJ. Full commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/my-2001-hit-song-superman-is-for-the-hostages-in-gaza-b3f6f739?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgl-84ekfLYm6lwRd34fqG_-8AUJCB__X2F0jMrW1Hne3ybNwBCJ6Ada_HulrE%3D&gaa_ts=6858a09a&gaa_sig=JeGFWNeLGU13Ctbi-_nP_G6kFfe544qlWVhdZEVsXCH9xPgETmstD8xCtZQcIkph9iNyGIt-esXrXkWURM83vA%3D%3D
Five for Fighting, “Superman, It’s Not Easy” from YouTube at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRz4FY0ZcwI
 
THE +500 RASI (McClellan Financial Publications)
“The strong breadth since the April 8, 2025 tariff crash low has produced a new all-time high for the NYSE's daily A-D Line.  It has also taken the the Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI) up above the important +500 threshold.  These two conditions are almost always a recipe for uptrend continuation.  This time might be different...

“...This one is not a perfect pattern analog, but then I have never seen a perfect one.  There are just varying degrees of how good a comparison is, and this one is quite good.  If the similarity persists, then we should see a drop to a low at the end of June, followed by a brief spike rally and then more selling into late July to early August.
2022 serves as an example of the principle that even a strong breadth signal can fail.  It is possible.  And for the moment we are seeing the market trace out similar dance steps to what we saw in 2022, so it is time to be watchful for falling prices.” - Tom McClellan. Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Commentary / analysis at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_500_rasi_might_actually_be_different_this_time/
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (Real Estate News)
“Though there was an uptick in existing home sales as spring progressed, last month was still the slowest for the month of May since 2009... "The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates. Lower interest rates will attract more buyers and sellers to the housing market," Yun [NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun] said in a June 23 news release.” Story at
https://www.realestatenews.com/2025/06/23/high-rates-prices-keep-existing-home-sales-muted
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6025.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.342% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained in Neutral territory at +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. While a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line in the above chart) often indicates a declining market, the S&P 500 bounced up from its lower trendline and price trumps the indicators at this point.
 
Iran attacked the US airbase in Quatar, but they gave a warning to Qutar first to limit loss of life. Investors have decided that Iran’s low-key response suggests there won’t be an escalation that will further involve the US. 
 
I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll see. The S&P 500 is about 1.9% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February and it has been in this zone for a while.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral, but expecting to be more bullish soon.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-r
anking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.