Fed Meeting ... Housing ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
TRUMP’S BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ISN’T SO BEAUTIFUL (WSJ)
“Republicans’ tax-and-spending megabill would increase budget deficits by $2.8 trillion through 2034 after factoring in the projected economic growth the bill would create, leading to 15% more red ink than previously estimated, according to the Congressional Budget Office.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/gop-megabill-would-increase-deficits-even-more-after-including-economic-growth-cbo-says-e9fdc315?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAghwHLt1BdXJkrkrEAo_s86aumH1VJOhfrchL0Et9R1tGUtx2yMUkuJW_L9yM8%3D&gaa_ts=68532d92&gaa_sig=vKcCqWNHOKVzVVhrfD9pHYoyYYUwaWf_6UHFE6rbONoSXFZc9axN0T0gsVSyfJPYfMH5LbWn7_V8FzJZeR7Nzg%3D%3D
Maybe that’s why Elon Musk called it an “abomination.”
 
FED MEETING (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve kept a steady hand on interest rates, maintaining them at their target range of 4.25% to 4.5%...Federal Reserve Chair Powell said on Wednesday that tariffs are an unavoidable cost increase to businesses and consumers.
‘Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs,’ Powell said. ‘It will be someone in that chain that I mentioned, between the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, ultimately somebody putting it into a good of some kind or just the consumer buying it.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/fed-meeting-live-updates-feds-interest-rate-projections-loom.html
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding increased in May, but a sharp drop in permits for future construction pointed to subdued housing market conditions amid headwinds from tariffs and excess inventory of unsold homes. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.4%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124819037.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in June and softening economic activity... Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 14.” Story at... 
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-still-elevated-2025-06-18/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5981.
-VIX declined about 7% to 20.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.391% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped into Neutral territory at +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. One can see from the above chart, a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line) often indicates a declining market.
 
Wednesday, there was high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
A few worrisome Bear signs:
-Up-volume is trending down.
-S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth.
-MACD OF S&P 500 price.
-Money Trend..
-New-high/New Low data
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Smart Money..
-Cyclical Industrials are Underperforming the S&P 500
 
For now, I’ll worry if the S&P 500 significantly violates its lower trend-line.
 
I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll see. The S&P 500 is about 2.7% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February and it has been in this zone for a while.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral – got to follow those indicators.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
DAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.