CPI ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“I heard Republican Congressman, Chip Roy of Texas, claim Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” pays for itself through tax cuts and economic growth. What crap. That’s like saying if I buy a new car with a credit card, it will pay for itself because I can now drive to work.  That’s true if I pay off the credit card, but in the case of the Federal budget, the debt is never paid. Congressman, how will the debt be paid? We need to fire all these clowns. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Tax-and-Spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend-Republicans; the country is screwed.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/cpi-inflation-may-2025.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 432.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6022.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.420% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved and remained very Bullish at +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread reversed again and is now going up – a bullish sign. It’s just a reminder that I don’t trade on information just from one source, even if it is based on 50-indicators. Yesterday it was headed down.
 
7 out of the last 10-days have been up-days.  That’s not quite a short-term sell signal, but it is close enough so that sometimes there is weakness in the markets at this level of bullishness. That’s what we’re seeing today; some angst over the bullish move over the last 2 weeks. This looks normal and I doubt the weakness will last too long.
 
The S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities, but the outperformance is fading, so this indicator is now one of the few bearish ones. This is usually a good indicator, but its usefulness is less now that some investors are buying utilities as a play on data-centers and their need for power.   
 
As I have been writing for a while, the day of reckoning is coming. My AI search said that a day of reckoning “is not inherently ‘bad’ but rather signifies a period where actions and their outcomes are made clear.” The day of reckoning for the stock market is the prior all-time high. When the S&P 500 get’s to its prior all-time high we’ll get some important information about the rally.  If breadth is good, the rally is likely to continue.  
 
The S&P 500 is still about 2% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February so we may not have long to wait.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.