PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Abolish FEMA? ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“I heard Republican Congressman, Chip Roy of Texas, claim
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” pays for itself through tax cuts and economic
growth. What crap. That’s like saying if I buy a new car with a credit card, it
will pay for itself because I can now drive to work. That’s true if I pay off the credit card, but
in the case of the Federal budget, the debt is never paid. Congressman, how
will the debt be paid? We need to fire all these clowns. It doesn’t matter
whether it’s Tax-and-Spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend-Republicans; the
country is screwed.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX).
“President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he plans to phase out
the Federal Emergency Management Agency after this year’s hurricane season, offering the clearest
timeline yet for his administration’s long-term plans to dismantle the disaster relief agency and shift
responsibility for response and recovery onto states.” Story at...
Trump
says he plans to phase out FEMA after 2025 hurricane season
-“Well, this is interesting. Among many jobs I held in
Federal Govt, I was the Emergency Manager for a DOD organization involved in
emergency response. Like many of Trump’s Executive Orders, there is a
significant question whether he has the power to abolish FEMA. Even though it
was established by Executive order of Jimmy Carter, there is a statute, the
Stafford Act, that covers emergencies and FEMA. Additionally, FEMA was reformed
in 2006 in the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act.
The Stafford Act detailed a framework for disaster
response. One of the primary tenants of the act was that a federal disaster was
to be declared only if the disaster was too great for a State to handle. Over
the years, that concept faded due to Politics, and Federal Disasters were
declared for everything from tornados to snowstorms. But since the original concept was that States
were to handle disasters unless if they were beyond their capability, Trump’s
order makes no sense. Who coordinates the recovery effort in a case where the
disaster really is too large for a state to handle – for example, a major
earthquake affecting large parts of California, Alaska or Missouri? Currently, FEMA
manages federal support by tasking federal agencies through an existing
structure that assigns missions to federal agencies. Trump’s plan does not
provide the structure to handle a disaster – it abolishes it.” – Meade Stith,
NTSM.
PPI (CNN)
“The latest Producer Price Index, a closely watched
measurement of wholesale inflation, showed that prices paid to producers rose
0.1% in May, lifting the annual rate to 2.6%, according to Bureau of Labor
Statistics data released Thursday.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/12/economy/us-producer-price-index-ppi-inflation-may
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“New applications for jobless benefits numbered 248,000
for the week ending June 7, the Labor Department said Thursday. Analysts had
forecast 244,000 new applications. A week ago, there were 248,000 jobless claim
applications, which was the most since early October and a sign that layoffs
could be trending higher.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/number-americans-filing-jobless-claims-week-remains-highest-122769235
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6045.
-VIX rose about 5% to 18.05. (The Options Boys seem
concerned since they bucked the trend.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.365%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but
remained Bullish at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread is still going up
– a bullish sign.
Same as yesterday: We still see that 7 out of the last
10-days have been up-days. That’s not
quite a short-term sell signal, but it is close enough so that sometimes there
is weakness in the markets at this level of bullishness. A little weakness
would not be a surprise, but we may make a new high first.
As I have been writing for a while, the day of reckoning
is coming. My AI search said that a day of reckoning “is not inherently ‘bad’ but
rather signifies a period where actions and their outcomes are made clear.” The
day of reckoning for the stock market is the prior all-time high. When the
S&P 500 get’s to its prior all-time high we’ll get some important
information about the rally. If breadth
is good, the rally is likely to continue.
The S&P 500 is about 1.6% below its all-time high of
6144 on 19 February so we may not have long to wait.
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at
the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is
my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher;
30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
