PCE Price Index ... Personal Income ... Trump Ends Talks with Canada ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX).
"I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just
pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP,
all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” – Warren Buffett
during a CNBC interview with Becky Quick in 2011.
“If politicians stopped meddling with things they don't
understand, there would be a more drastic reduction in the size of government
than anyone in either party advocates.”- Thomas
Sowell
"'Bipartisan' usually means that a larger-than-usual
deception is being carried out." - George Carlin
TRUMP ENDS TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Friday said
the United States is immediately “terminating ALL discussions on Trade
with Canada”
in response to Ottawa’s decision to impose a digital
services tax on American tech firms.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/trump-canada-trade-talks-tariffs.html
PERSONAL INCOME (WSJ)
“A drop in personal income in May
data released Friday is largely attributable to an anomaly in Social
Security payments, according to Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC
Nikko Securities Americas.Personal income decreased 0.4% from the prior month
in May...” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-inflation-data-06-27-2025/card/personal-income-data-skewed-by-social-security-catch-up-payments-3ZbtrdDHZDFECfMtMRyW?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAidND-yk1NYBX39oSn7feWibnXXi78FIyB5jI33kTofAUbjsXAgBkel60o8Nis%3D&gaa_ts=685ee32b&gaa_sig=mE404gBZ3isSYWjjOJcaK7RagAy9t-6s4eYe6z_AZR_2B5Rm7uwGON5n-jcmfTWy7DsBaK9NNiej3e5fCNaQ2g%3D%3D
PCE PRICE INDEX / CORE PCE (Yahoo Finance)
“The ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the
central bank, rose 2.7% on an annual basis, above the 2.6% economists had
expected... On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased by 2.3%, above the 2.2%
increase from the month prior.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-price-increases-accelerated-in-may-123850424.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6173.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.275%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal
to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or
bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Trump’s announcement that he would end trade talks with
Canada tanked the markets around mid-day. Cooler heads prevailed in the
afternoon as markets staged a late-day rally and closed well above the prior
all-time high of 6144. Most of the news was good.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators increased to
a very bullish +15 from +13 yesterday (15 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread turned higher – a bullish sign.
Breadth could be better, but it was above 50% for all
time-frames I track. The number of new-52-week
highs were below the 5-year average for what we typically see at all-time highs
on the S&P 500, but they were well above a number that signals trouble. There
was more good news.
There were only 5 bear indicators: (1) Bollinger Bands (2) The S&P 500 is too far ahead of
Breadth (3) S&P 500 is outperforming cyclical industrials (XLI) (4) Utilities
(XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500 (5) The fifth indicator is a short-term
signal: Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the
price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a
statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the
time.
There are some top indicators. The most important might be Bollinger Bands
because it is closely followed.
Bollinger Bands are now overbought, but RSI is not. I use them together
so no top warning yet.
I increased stock holdings Friday, based on good signs
from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. Cautiously, because of tariffs
and their impact on inflation.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is
my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher;
30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
