“I heard Republican Congressman, Chip Roy of Texas, claim Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” pays for itself through tax cuts and economic growth. What crap. That’s like saying if I buy a new car with a credit card, it will pay for itself because I can now drive to work. That’s true if I pay off the credit card, but in the case of the Federal budget, the debt is never paid. Congressman, how will the debt be paid? We need to fire all these clowns. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Tax-and-Spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend-Republicans; the country is screwed.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.
“...this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market control returns to the Bulls. As such, there is very little resistance between current levels and all-time highs. However, as noted last week, with the markets still overbought on a momentum basis, further consolidation will be unsurprising before an advance to new highs occurs. With the MACD sell signal triggered and money flows declining, another test of the 200-DMA next week would be unsurprising.” – Commentary from...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bond-yield-chasing-tomorrows-narrative/
“Elon Musk is famously having a feud with President Trump this week, which is getting a lot of media attention. As one of the salvos in this feud, Musk posted on X that, "The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year." I agree with the forecast, although not necessarily the causation he sites...The yield curve thus far in history is undefeated in terms of forecasting economic recessions when it sees an inversion. So it would be quite unusual if we somehow did not get a recession in 2025. That is an important point to keep in mind as we all evaluate the various tariff proposals, and the commentary about those proposals.” Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/yield_curves_predicted_recession_is_arriving/
My cmt: While the yield curve is not currently inverted, Tom McClellan points to a roughly 15-month lag time as a predictor for recession. He notes that a recession between “now and February 2026 would still be right on time.”
"I think there's a real chance numbers will deteriorate soon," such as in the U.S. labor market, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday. He noted tectonic shifts in such things as trade and geopolitics. "There's a lot of moving parts," he added. "We see it a little bit today," he said at the Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference. "The tariffs are hitting." He's expecting bigger impacts coming in "maybe July, August, September, October....hopefully, it will not be dramatic. Maybe it'll be a little softer of a soft landing."... "If inflation rears its ugly head, or you see stagflation, that will shock people..." Story at...
JPMorgan Chase's Dimon sees chance that U.S. economic number will 'deteriorate soon'
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The latest reading was above the 95.9 forecast and pushes the index back above its historical average for the first time in three months. The index is at the 46th percentile of the series...The net percent of small business owners expecting better business conditions increased." Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/10/nfib-small-business-survey-optimism-recovered-slightly-in-may
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6039.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.474% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +12, but it remained a Bullish +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread is reversed and is now falling slightly – a bearish sign. I don’t always trade the 10-dMa of the 50-Indicator Spread and I don’t plan to make a move now unless we see a strong move lower. Even then, indicators remain bullish overall and the Index is not near its upper trend line so I am on hold.
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
