Durable Goods ... Factory Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
DURABLE GOODS (Monitor Daily)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods fell 6.3% in April to $296.3 billion, breaking a four-month streak of gains, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday. The $19.9 billion drop followed a 7.6% increase in March. The April decline was primarily driven by transportation equipment orders, which dropped 17.1%, or $20.3 billion, to $98.8 billion after four months of growth. Excluding transportation, new orders rose slightly by 0.2%. When excluding defense, orders declined 7.5%.” Story at...
https://www.monitordaily.com/news-posts/durable-goods-orders-drop-6-3-in-april-snapping-four-month-growth-streak/
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped sharply in April and business spending on equipment appeared to have lost momentum at the start of the second quarter as the boost from front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs faded.
Factory orders fell 3.7%...” Story at... 
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-factory-orders-slump-april-2025-06-03/
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Fx Street)
“The number of job openings on the last business day of April stood at 7.39 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 7.2 million openings recorded in March and came in above the market expectation of 7.1 million. "Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively.” From...
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-jolts-job-openings-expected-to-decline-for-third-consecutive-month-in-april-202506030800
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5970
-VIX declined about 4% to 17.69. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.458% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a very Bullish at +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread has been a fairly reliable indicator for trend. It reversed down on 22 May along with the S&P 500. That prompted me to state that the Spread was suggesting a return to the lower trendline.  Over the last 4 days the Index has moved higher while the 10-day Spread has continued to fall.  That spread has slowed and may reverse higher, too. If it does, I’ll move back to 50% invested in stocks. I won’t guess though; indicators could always move down, although the price-action seems to suggest otherwise.
 
The S&P 500 is about 3% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February. When the S&P 500 gets there (sooner of later), it will be very interesting to see what the internals look like.  Weak internals at an all-time high will signal trouble.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, but leaning bullish longer-term. I’ve been saying that a trip to the lower trendline is underway. That’s not as clear now.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.