Consumer Expectations ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“I heard Republican Congressman, Chip Roy of Texas, claim Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” pays for itself through tax cuts and economic growth. What crap. That’s like saying if I buy a new car with a credit card, it will pay for itself because I can now drive to work.  That’s true if I pay off the credit card, but in the case of the Federal budget, the debt is never paid. Congressman, how will the debt be paid? We need to fire all these clowns. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Tax-and-Spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend-Republicans; the country is screwed.” – Meade Stith, NTSM.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
EXPECT A DOWNDRAFT BY THE END OF THE YEAR (Seeking Alpha)
“Niles Investment Management founder Dan Niles said he expects a downturn later this year. The 20% market rally from April lows could continue toward new all-time record highs, though Niles warned investors should become “very worried” as the holiday season approaches...I think in the short term, I don’t have a super strong opinion, but I think [the rally] can continue,” Niles said. “I think we could get to new all-time record highs. But remember, the reason I believe that is I believe demand is being pulled forward.” Commentary at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4456273-investors-should-expect-another-big-downdraft-by-the-end-of-the-year-niles-investment
 
NY FED SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (CNBC)
“Americans grew less fearful about inflation in May as President Donald Trump backed off the most severe of his tariff proposals, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey Monday. The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that the one-year inflation outlook took a substantial dip, down to 3.2% — a 0.4 percentage point decrease from April.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/09/inflation-fears-receded-in-may-as-trump-eased-some-tariff-threats-new-york-fed-survey-shows.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6006.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.16.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.476% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

We never like to see a big swoon late in the day as we can see on today’s chart of the S&P 500. The good news is that the internals were good on the day. Advancers outpaced decliners by almost 2 to 1 on the NYSE; 62% of the volume was up-volume; and there were 75 new highs and only 14 new lows.  We’d like to see more new highs, but for now, we’ll take what we can get; the lack of new-lows is a good sign.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped, but it remained an extremely Bullish +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread is moving higher – a bullish sign.
 
The day of reckoning is coming. My AI search said that a day of reckoning “is not inherently ‘bad’ but rather signifies a period where actions and their outcomes are made clear.” The day of reckoning for the stock market is the prior all-time high. When the S&P 500 get’s to its prior all-time high we’ll get some important information about the rally.  If breadth is good, the rally is likely to continue.  
 
The S&P 500 is still about 2.3% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February so we may not have long to wait.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish. Let’s see what indicators are telling us at the all-time high, assuming the S&P 500 get’s there.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.