Consumer Confidence ... Richmond FED Services ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
“When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful & difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.” -  Ricky Gervais
 
IS RIOTING ACCEPTABLE? (WSJ)
“We don’t have s— under control,” a Los Angeles Police Department commander told me on Sunday. “It’s a godsend that the National Guard and the Marines are here.” Officers on the street felt the same way, though the LAPD forbids them to express that view in public, the commander said.
There are two different pictures of what happened in Los Angeles—the official one from California’s elected leaders and the media, and the ground-level view from law enforcement.” - Heather Mac Donald, Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of “When Race Trumps Merit.” Commentary at... 
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-rioting-acceptable-if-so-how-much-06531b5b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAi2UZBIVm3BHp5u0VFVZx8RN5_6P4kWd4eB0h5PcipNLc06GEvFGENSG-08Nqs%3D&gaa_ts=6858a38c&gaa_sig=XpdZBJPFfZofnr_iwXoobunBhBUiNUjE31fMpDlWEknzegjaO0rD0iIhfPmywVSpQXrlxy0FaXPpC7XV4DOkmg%3D%3D
 
DEMOCRAT APPROVAL FALLS (Sun Herald)
“Quinnipiac University polling published this month revealed a 21% approval rating for Democrats in Congress, which is the lowest point since 2009. Similarly, a CNN/SSRS poll found the party’s favorability at 29%, a record low since 1992. Democrats fear these numbers may signal a troubled future... Quinnipiac University added, ‘Fifty-four percent in the new poll gave Trump a thumbs-down for his handling of his job as president, down one point from the April survey.’" Story at...
Democratic Approval Collapses in New Poll
My cmt: “And I don’t like anybody very much!” – An obscure song reference from a 1959 RIAA gold album.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May... “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
RICHMOND FED SERVICES (Richmond FED)
“Fifth District service sector activity remained soft in June, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from −11 to −4 and the demand index ticked up from −8 to −7 in June. The indexes for future revenues and demand increased notably to 20 and 13, respectively.” Press release at...
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sector
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 6092.
-VIX declined about 12% to 17.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.296% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Bullish at +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. While a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line in the above chart) often indicates a declining market, the S&P 500 bounced up from its lower trendline and price trumps the indicators at this point.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
The S&P 500 is above its lower trendline and there’s plenty of room for it to run before the upper trendline. I may add to my stock allocation Wednesday. I suspect Fed Chair Powell’s comment that he may lower interest rates sooner rather later (assuming the data supports it) may boost markets, but all is not perfect with markets.
 
There are some signs of a top, but markets have not made a top yet. Bollinger Bands are overbought, but RSI is not. I use these indicators together. Typically, both Bollinger Bands and RSI must be overbought before we have a top. But as we know, overbought conditions can remain in place for a while so top signals can be early.
 
As markets approach the previous all-time high, breadth is looking weak. We’ll see what happens when markets get to the old high. Hopefully breadth will improve by the time markets get there. We may not have long to wait.   
 
The S&P 500 is about 0.8% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.