CPI ... Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The notion that rule of law governs is the basic proposition. We need to stop and reflect every now and then how rare that is, certainly rare throughout history, and rare in the world today...For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.” – John Roberts, Chief Justice commenting on recent threats, presumably by the Trump administration. From...
Chief Supreme Court Justice Gives Biggest Sign Yet of Trump Disapproval
 
BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The National Federation of Independent Businesses released its survey of small business owners, which found that NFIB’s small business optimism index declined by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, ‘the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98.’” Story at...
https://www.kpvi.com/interests/small-business-optimism-declined-in-april/article_20fa7eb8-5363-5d4d-a82a-2e21ef74f6b5.html
 
CPI (CNBC)
“Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.
The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/cpi-inflation-april-2025.html
 
“When I started to forecast all-time highs, people thought I was crazy, as usual. ...The NASDAQ 100 is... even stronger than the S&P 500. While I was thinking new highs in Q4 or Q1, the scenario is happening much faster. The markets [are] not near new highs to be clear, but they are also much better positioned than they were a week or two ago.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Blog at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/tariffs-trump-tired/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5887.
-VIX declined about 1% to 18.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped a little to 4.471% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The S&P 500 closed about 4% below its all-time top, so new highs appear to be in sight. Still, the markets are getting a bit stretched. RSI is overbought; my Smart Money indicator is overbought; and Bollinger Bands are nearly overbought. This suggests stocks are nearing a short-term top. I say short-term because there is no evidence that we are looking at significant declines more than 5-7%. Further, at this point, indicators are not signaling a top.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a very Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
My Breadth indicators look good and the 50-indicator spread is suggesting the rally continues, although markets appear to be nearing a top.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.