Michigan Sentiment ... Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
HOUSING (Census Bureau)
“Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 1,481,000 and is 3.2 percent below the April 2024 rate...” Report at...
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
 
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes. Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy... Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture – consumers continue to express somber views about the economy.” Press release at... 
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5958.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.445% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 22 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a very bullish +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), the highest indication since January (I consider 5 neutral); the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
There still have been 16 up-days in the last month so I would not be surprised to see some weakness for a few days. If Monday is an up-day, this stat will increase to 17 up-days in the last 20 trading days. That’s extremely high, and again, suggests some weakness, although it might only last a few days.
 
It appears this market wants to test the old highs. The S&P 500 closed 2.3% below the prior all-time high Friday. If the Index makes the old high, it will be a big test and we’ll get some inkling whether the rally will continue.
 
At this point, I have no evidence to suggest that it won’t, but we’ll see.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.