“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Two huge debates collide at the Supreme Court on Thursday, and which direction the arguments will ricochet is hard to predict. First question: Can President Trump deny citizenship to the U.S.-born children of illegal aliens? Second: Can a solitary federal judge in any outpost of this vast nation halt government action from sea to shining sea?... The dispute is whether illegal aliens are subject to U.S. jurisdiction. The longtime interpretation suggests yes.” – WSJ Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/birthright-citizenship-supreme-court-nationwide-injunctions-donald-trump-a394b4ef?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
“...the Trump administration has contested that a district judge should not be able to single-handedly stop Trump from enacting an executive order that ends birthright citizenship in America.”
“I have a solution that could kill two birds with one stone: Stop advertising. The millions of dollars saved can be spent on R&D and the disappearance of ads will simultaneously cure my dinner-time nausea. I will no longer have to watch people frolic in fields while I listen to a happy voice tell me about the horrible side effects of their medication.- Rebecca Forster, WSJ letters.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/price-controls-are-a-debilitating-prescription-pharma-drugs-3b53ea32?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos6
“Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but economists say the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off that might not be sustained if tariffs persist at current levels. The producer price index dropped 0.5% last month...” Story at...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-shows-biggest-drop-since-2020-but-its-unlikely-to-last-f063a765
“Business activity continued to soften in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's district during May, according to its latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released Thursday. The general business conditions index stood at -9.2 in May from April's -8.1, the third straight month of declining activity...” Story at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-05-15/ny-feds-empire-state-manufacturing-index-loses-ground-in-may
“Initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000 in the week ending May 10, the Labor Department said Thursday.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/jobless-claims-hold-steady-in-latest-week-continuing-to-signal-healthy-labor-market/ar-AA1EPRnL?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
“Retail sales slowed in April as Trump's tariffs weighed on US consumers who pulled forward spending on some key categories into March ahead of these levies.
Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April...well below the 1.7% increase seen in March...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-slow-sharply-in-april-as-pre-tariff-spending-burst-reverses-123408102.html
“Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity remained weak in the month of May, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday... Looking ahead, the Philly Fed said firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, with the diffusion index for future general activity soaring to 47.2 in May from 6.9 in April.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3539687/philly-fed-index-jumps-more-than-expected-but-remains-negative-in-may.aspx
“We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks," he said at a policy conference. The "supply shocks" remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a difficult balancing act.” Story at...
Fed's Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as 'supply shocks' provide policy challenges
Apparently, markets liked the comments since they rose sharply in the morning. Do the comments suggest the Fed will lower rates? Doesn’t seem like it to me, but I am not the “Market.”
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5917.
-VIX declined about 4% to 17.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.431% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 22 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), the highest indication since January (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
