... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.” - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
  
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5650.38.
-VIX rose about 4% to 23.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.349% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
The S&P 50 has been up 9 out of the last 10 days. This simple count is a way of looking at overbought conditions. It is one of my indicators that was bearish today.  The overbought/oversold ratio was also bearish. These indicators suggest a slowing and possibly a retreat of the markets. The smart money knows this and the Smart Money indicator is now bearish too. The Smart Money waits until the afternoon to make moves, so my Smart Money indicator simply tracks whether the late-day action was up or down. (The original Smart Money indicator was developed by Don Hayes and it keeps a running total of the gain between the first half hour and the gain in the last half hour. The Dumb Money trades early.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.