FOMC Minutes ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Blind obedience to authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” - Albert Einstein
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
FOMC MINUTES (FX Empire)
“On May 28, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting that was held on May 6-7, 2025.
The Minutes showed that Fed believed that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace, while labor market conditions remained solid. Meanwhile, inflation remained somewhat elevated.... The central bank needs more time to assess the impact of Trump’s tariff policy, so it will not hurry to change rates.” Story at...
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/fomc-minutes-confirm-fed-is-not-in-a-hurry-to-cut-rates-1522422
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5889.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.96. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.475% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
 

That was an ugly chart today. The Bulls can’t like to see the S&P 500 fail in the afternoon and close at the lows for the day. That sort of selling can slip over to the next day. Indicators slipped some, too. Maybe Nvidia’s earnings (a beat on earnings and revenue) will bring a better mood on Thursday.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators dropped, but remained bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. 
 
Once again, we saw extremely High unchanged volume. Wednesday, there was extremely high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
For now, if the 10-day moving average of the 50-indicator spread reverses higher I may put some more money to work and increase to a 50% position in stocks. That didn’t happen today.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral/bullish/confused. Isn’t everyone?
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.