Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market...We'll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%." – Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager.
 
STOCKS PRICE IN TRADE VICTORY (Market Insider)
“More than a month has passed since President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked chaos in financial markets, and there's been no news of a trade deal. But markets are acting like the trade war may already be won, and investors may be getting overly optimistic, market pros say... investors need to tread carefully when it comes to baking in assumptions about trade policy, market experts told Business Insider.
"No way you're going to make a deal in a couple of weeks. Now, maybe they'll come up with some sort of framework for negotiation that could one day lead to a deal, and maybe Trump will, being the master marketer, claim some sort of victory if they achieve that. But actual trade deals? No, I don't think that's very likely," Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said.” Story at...
Market pros say stocks are already pricing in a US trade war victory — even without news of any deals
 
TRADE DEAL WITH BRITAIN (NBC NEWS)
“The U.S. is working toward finalizing a narrow trade deal with the United Kingdom, President Donald Trump said Thursday, a small step as the White House pursues an aggressive tariff agenda across the globe.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-says-major-trade-deal-will-discussed-white-house-event-thursday-rcna205509
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 3. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. The decline unwound some of the boost from school spring breaks in New York state, which had lifted claims to a two-month high... Economists say it is only a matter of time before the weakness in business and consumer surveys spills over to so-called hard data like claims, inflation and employment reports.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-2025-05-08/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5664.
-VIX declined about 5% to 22.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.371% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a very Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
As markets rocketed higher in the morning, I thought it might signal a blow-off top of some kind.  Maybe traders came to the same conclusion, because markets sold off in the afternoon and any signs of a blow-off top disappeared.
 
Thursday, unchanged-volume was extremely high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen. The indicators are extremely bullish – from lofty heights the only way forward is down. Still, it’s hard to assess the condition when indicators are too bullish. Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. If the 10-dMA of the 50-indicaotr spread turns down, I might be willing to say that markets are likely to retreat.
 
All of my Breadth indicators look good and the 50-indicator spread is suggesting the rally continues.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down some to work off the bullish froth.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.