https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Treasury auctions are like the plumbing of a toilet: You only pay attention when something goes wrong. A weak auction drove a market selloff on Wednesday for the first time since late 2023. There are good reasons to be concerned about overspill.
The auction itself should have been uneventful. It involved some $16 billion of 20-year bonds sold to investors—no big deal. But there was less demand from end-investors than usual, and the price was lower—so the government’s borrowing cost higher—than had been expected in advance.
The weak demand in itself isn’t great. But the wider market reaction was horrible... There are three big things going on...
...Firstly, investors are worried about out-of-control U.S. borrowing. President Trump’s tax bill, passed by the House early Thursday, will increase already high government debt by trillions...
...Second...the weak bidding at the auction was a clear signal that there is less demand for long-dated Treasurys...
...third...the ICE U.S. Dollar index ended down 0.6%—failing to attract buyers despite much higher long-dated Treasury yields....
This might all blow over, as it did in 2023. Back then, the symptoms of too much debt went away as inflation came down and the economy grew, fueling a bull market in stocks and sucking in foreign investors. But the underlying problem remains, and politicians are yet to be persuaded that it is worth the pain of fixing. They should do so, before things get messy.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-bond-market-is-waking-up-to-the-fiscal-mess-in-washington-fcebd153
"Total orders for goods made to last at least three years, such as automobiles, planes and electronic equipment, were 6.3% lower in April than in March, Commerce Department data said Tuesday...Transportation equipment orders dived 17.1% on month, dragged by a 51.5% decline in nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, total durable goods orders edged up 0.2% in April.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-durable-goods-orders-tumble-on-lower-aircraft-demand-425f10e0
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April... "Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.” Story at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-partially-rebounds-in-may-302465852.html
“The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/27/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-may-2025
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 5922.
-VIX fell about 15% to 18.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.446% (compared to about this time prior market day).
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, to a bullish +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign.
I am neutral/bullish/confused. Isn’t everyone?
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
