GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
GDP 2ND ESTIMATE (Advisor Perspectives)
“The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA's second estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was higher than the -0.3% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.”  Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/29/gdp-gross-domestic-product-q1-2025-second-estimate
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last...The number of people collecting unemployment checks in mid-May was the largest in 3-1/2 years. The dimming economic outlook was reinforced by other data showing corporate profits declining by the most in more than four years in the first quarter...Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 for the week ended May 24...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-labor-market-eases-2025-05-29/
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
TARIFF AND THE COURTS (CNBC)
“The Trump administration said it may ask the U.S. Supreme Court as soon as Friday to immediately pause a ruling blocking many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs... Even if the ruling stands, Trump may have other ways of imposing import taxes without approval from Congress.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/trump-court-international-trade-tariffs-miller.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5889.
-VIX declined about 0.7% to 19.18. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained bullish at +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. 
 
The federal court ruling that blocked Trumps tariffs caused Futures to leap higher last night, but by today’s trading, it didn’t seem to matter. I would not expect to see the Supreme Court support the Tariffs.  I’m not expert, but the Executive Branch doesn’t have a lot of tariff power under the Constitution. The CNBC article above noted “...Trump may have other ways of imposing import taxes without approval from Congress.” We’ll see. Since I don’t know where this is going, my alternative is to follow the markets and see how they react. Indicators were unchanged today.
 
Once again, Thursday, there was high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
Repeating: If the 10-day moving average of the 50-indicator spread reverses higher I may put some more money to work and increase to a 50% position in stocks. That didn’t happen today.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral but leaning bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.