Friday, May 2, 2025

Jobs Report ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“I represent the base and when I'm frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy...I campaigned for no more foreign wars. And now we are supposedly on the verge of going to war with Iran. I don't think we should be bombing foreign countries on behalf of other foreign countries especially when they have their own nuclear weapons and massive military strength." – Marjorie Taylor Green.
OMG! The base is abandoning Trump?
 
JOBS REPORT (CNN)
“America’s long-resilient job market continues to defy expectations — even in the wake of swirling uncertainty. The US economy added a surprisingly strong 177,000 jobs in April, a slight slowdown from March’s downwardly revised 185,000 gains...”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/what-to-expect-from-fridays-jobs-report
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 5687.
-VIX slipped about 8% to 22.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.306% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +14 (14 more Bull-indicators than Bear-indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
Markets have continued to rebound; the S&P 500 is now down about 7.4% from its all-time high on 19 February. That’s about 2% above its 50-dMA. Breadth still hasn’t gotten too strong, so we will be very curious to see what the numbers look like if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs.
 
Markets liked the Jobs Report today. That’s all we need to say except for one caution; jobs are a lagging indicator and will be late to signal a recession.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though slowing or retreat should be expected. I added XLK and SPY Monday and I remain about 50% in stocks, my conservative "Fully Invested" position.