Leading Economic Indicators ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession, and even with the recent decline in market values, prices remain relatively high.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO and chairman, in a letter to shareholders on April 7.
 
“Biotechnology is one of the most important areas of technological competition between the United States and China, and China is investing considerably more resources. Lacking equivalent efforts domestically, the United States runs the risk of
Sputnik-like strategic surprises in biotechnology... A race to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon is under way, with serious concerns that, despite Outer Space Treaty prohibitions against it, the first nation to reach the Moon may be in a strong position to prevent others from establishing their own lunar presence.” - THE STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2025
 
“Deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller last Friday told reporters that the Trump administration is “actively looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus, which ensures that a prisoner has the right to challenge his detention in court. ‘Well, the Constitution is clear—and that, of course, is the supreme law of the land—that the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus can be suspended in a time of invasion,’ Mr. Miller said. ‘A lot of it depends on whether the courts do the right thing or not.’... Of all the measures the administration has proposed, this is the most dangerous. Habeas corpus is known as the “Great Writ” for good reason. For centuries, English monarchs jailed people without formally charging them... Article I, Section 9: “The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it... Neither constitutional law nor history supports the proposition that President Trump can suspend the writ without congressional review and authorization. ” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-habeas-corpus-threat-due-process-law-policy-history-f3a58b21
My cmt: Invasion? These Trumpees are genuinely warped.
 
US CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADED (NBC News)
“Moody’s Ratings slashed the United States’ credit rating down a notch to Aa1 from the highest triple A on Friday, citing the budgetary burden the government faces amid high interest rates. “This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” the ratings agency said in a statement.” Story at...
Moody's downgrades United States credit rating on increase in government debt
My cmt: Budget deficits are beginning to matter.
 
THE FED IS BUYING BONDS (MarketWatch)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve just pulled off something stealthy — over four days last week, without fanfare, the Fed vacuumed up $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries. That’s $8.8 billion in long-dated 30-year bonds on May 8 alone, plus another $34.8 billion earlier in the week. Not exactly small change... China [is] quietly telling Uncle Sam that holding all those U.S. Treasurys is starting to feel less like prudent investing and more like playing roulette with the house on fire.
Think about it. Even if China converts into gold a modest 10% of the $784 billion Treasury stash it held as of February, it would send tremors through global markets... The Fed’s stealth QE is the opening act in a larger financial drama. Gold is climbing, bitcoin’s gaining legitimacy and resource-rich economies like Brazil are poised to benefit. Central bankers typically have fewer tells than professional poker players, but right now they’re twitching. And quiet moves by central banks often precede loud market shifts... While QE typically props up U.S. stocks, the stealth of this move — amid declining trust in fiat currencies and rising geopolitical tensions — uniquely positions gold, bitcoin and Latin America as prime shelters, and profitable opportunities, in a brewing financial storm.” Story at...
Why is the Fed quietly buying billions in bonds — and hoping nobody notices?
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8% in March... “The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board... while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5964.
-VIX rose about 5% to 18.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.457% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a bullish +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) I consider 5 neutral. The 10-dMA of the spread was flat – a neutral sign suggesting a possible reversal. 
 
“I have a really bad feeling about this.” – Han
 
Today, there was a stat that is nearly unprecedented in my 16 years of data.  It is a simple indicator that counts the number of up-days over 20-days of trading. Today was the 17^th up-day in the last month. 17 up-days in 20 has only happened once in the last 16 years; that’s as far back as my records go for this indicator. It occurred in November of 2021 and was followed by a decline of about 13% over the next several months.
 
It is so unusual for the S&P 500 to make 16-up days in a row, that my long-term indicator ensemble issued a sell signal Thursday & Friday based on this one indicator. With 17 today, it’s another sell signal. It’s a sell signal because it shows extreme bullishness; but is the sell-signal, correct?
 
If this string of up-days were occurring near a top, we would conclude that it is the result of too much optimism and is clearly a sell-signal.  After a bottom, as we saw recently, a string of up-days may be an appropriate, bullish reaction to the perceived buying opportunity.   
 
This time, I’ll treat it as a warning and watch for other signs that might signal a reversal.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.