“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“In a ruling heard ’round the world, the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This is an important moment for the rule of law as much as for the economy, proving again that America doesn’t have a king who can rule by decree... No other President has used IEEPA to impose tariffs. As the trade court explains, Richard Nixon used the law’s precursor, the Trading With the Enemy Act, in 1971 to impose 10% tariffs for a short period to address a balance of payments problem...
...The White House boasts it will win at the Supreme Court, but our reading of the trade court’s opinion suggests the opposite. Mr. Trump’s three Court appointees are likely to invoke the major-questions precedent. Mr. Trump has other laws he can use to impose tariffs, though most are more limited than his emergency claims. The most expansive is Section 338 of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which lets a President impose duties up to 50% on countries found to discriminate against the U.S. But no President has ever done so.
Mr. Trump would be wiser to heed the trade court’s ruling as the political gift it is and liberate his Presidency and the economy from his destructive tariff obsessions." Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-ieepa-court-of-international-trade-ruling-08e76022?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiAv4XsFbLPzBqFAJ-H4NLSOEQ6UfE4mZh67CoXb9MSSklROeOb9qs47qO1R58%3D&gaa_ts=683a2797&gaa_sig=R0h-raoGZPtO6R5ZJwxCe6VqXo2t3rVBHWXfVmUSAzoLMzEtJwC-N9pDK0lNTTuuDDXYR0gJlQccpkSnwOM7ZQ%3D%3D
“The U.S. economy has dodged a bullet—or has it? The Court of International Trade ruled on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs, imposed broadly on almost all goods from almost all countries, exceed the president’s authority under the statute. The court’s ruling recognized Congress’s role in setting tariff policy and was good news for American businesses and consumers. But on Thursday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit stayed the trade court’s ruling while it considers an appeal...
...Whatever the outcome of the court battles, Americans should hope that the tariff madness ends. While the lower temporary tariffs weren’t as bad as those originally threatened on “Liberation Day,” they nevertheless would produce significant adverse effects—higher consumer prices, lower business investment and lower economic growth.” - Robert C. Pozen, senior lecturer at MIT Sloan School of Management and a former president of Fidelity Investments and Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at Yale’s Budget Lab. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-america-dodge-a-tariff-bullet-policy-economy-law-3212de12?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjQYIfwKTdkcHP_etZdQhNelkGs-i00eQ5XCWWyig-FDp06vIBTHDrXC01doy0%3D&gaa_ts=683a28e9&gaa_sig=96iX2kcYfq7F8qOHd_-OYhpMD_IXt5XisqXAFYZUVk805s_tgWsr5gw-_CNbL5y69OFxtULDmTB8KlDlB8857g%3D%3D
“The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure stayed subdued in April as spending slowed. But the outlook for the economy has become even more muddied amid constant changes to President Trump’s policies. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, released on Friday, climbed 2.1 percent in April from a year earlier, slightly lower than the previous reading of 2.3 percent and closer in line with the Fed’s 2 percent target. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.1 percent after staying flat in March.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/business/fed-inflation-consumer-spending.html
“Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8% at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-increased $189.4 billion (0.8%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2%).” Story at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/personal-income-rose-08-in-april-spending-up-02#
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted... Given its persistent weakness, the current level reinforces concerns about ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector.”
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/30/chicago-pmi-sinks-to-4-month-low
Note: The PMI figures are in a zone where recessions (shown in grey on the above chart) have occurred.
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5912.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.400% (compared to about this time prior market day).
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to Neutral at +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign.
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
I am neutral, but leaning bullish longer-term. In the here-and-now, a trip to the lower trendline is underway.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
