“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 441.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
“While there are undoubtedly still uncertainties and
details to iron out with the trade negotiation with China, the easing of
tensions is apparently enough for the markets, which are typically
forward-looking and are pricing in an environment where the U.S. and China are
able to trade with each other,” Gardner [Rick Gardner, chief investment officer
with RGA Investments] said.” Story at...
Global equities expert offers blunt message about US-China trade deal
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5893.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.542% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Wednesday, there was very high unchanged volume. I know. You’re tired of reading that...
...I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen but the indicators don’t suggest it now. Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators dipped
slightly to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), still a solid
Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued
higher – also a bullish sign.
My Breadth indicators look good and the 50-indicator
spread is suggesting the rally continues, although markets appear to be nearing
a top, but not there yet.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when
I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear
market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 441.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Global equities expert offers blunt message about US-China trade deal
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5893.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.542% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Wednesday, there was very high unchanged volume. I know. You’re tired of reading that...
...I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen but the indicators don’t suggest it now. Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
